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vast cover-up.”

It is not easy to find an objective criterion that distinguishes the inquiry into a real conspiracy from one that chases a pseudo-conspiracy. Both types rely are the eyewitnesses, documents and forensic evidence. The best that Mr. Brotherton can offer on this score is to cite Stewart Potter’s famous comment on pornography: “I know it when I see it.” In the context of suspicious minds, though, one person might see a plausible case for a conspiracy and another only outlandish connections. The distinction is in the mind of the beholder.

Mr. Brotherton offers a sample list of conspiracy theories, including ones alleging that Abraham Lincoln was assassinated on the orders of his vice president; that the moon landing was faked; that Area 51 in New Mexico is home to extra-terrestrial technology under government auspices; that President Obama is “a communist Muslim from Kenya.” Such theories are meant to show that suspicious minds leap to absurd conclusions. These are chosen because there is no evidence to support them.

The picture changes, however, if we consider, for example, the theory claiming that Lincoln’s assassin, John Wilkes Booth was part of a larger conspiracy backed by the Confederacy. On April 14, 1865, at about the same time that Booth shot Lincoln, one of his associates stabbed Secretary of State William Seward and another stalked Vice President Andrew Johnson with a loaded gun. The military commission appointed by President Johnson, after hearing 371 witnesses testify and after examining Confederate bank transfers and cipher communications, concluded that the three attacks were part of a conspiracy sponsored by the Confederacy and convicted eight of Booth’s associates, four of whom were hanged. Here we have a conspiracy theory proceeding not from crackpots but from a government commission backed by the new president and most members of Lincoln’s cabinet.

Clearly the defects in the brain’s wiring that lead to crazy theories may lead to the confirmation of theories that are adopted by rational people. Indeed, the confirmation bias can work in contradictory ways: confirming not only conspiracy theories but the impulse to reject them in favor of conventional wisdom. Can this defect be corrected? Here I am reminded of a Woody Allen’s absolutely brilliant 1996 comedy “Everyone Says I Love You,” in which the once-liberal son of a New York liberal family starts spouting conservative theories until a doctor solves the problem by restoring the proper flow of oxygen to his brain. The movie has a happy ending when the son goes back to spouting his family’s liberal theories. While Mr. Brotherton offers no such remedy to our brain’s defects, he does offer a thought-provoking analysis and an appealing guide to thinking about conspiracies, real and imagined.

—Mr. Epstein most recent book is “The Annals of Unsolved Crimes.” He is currently writing a book about Edward Snowden.
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/theyre-not-really-out-to-get-you-1450471512
Happy New Year
Ed
www.edwardjayepstein.com

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