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Extraction Summary
13
People
16
Organizations
6
Locations
8
Events
3
Relationships
5
Quotes
Document Information
Type:
Financial research report / equity strategy analysis
File Size:
Summary
This document is a Bank of America Merrill Lynch 'European Equity Strategy' report page dated December 1, 2016, analyzing political risks in the Eurozone for the coming year. It details specific election and referendum scenarios in Italy, Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Germany, assessing their potential impact on markets. While stamped 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT', indicating it was part of a congressional investigation (likely related to financial records), the content itself is purely geopolitical analysis and contains no direct mention of Jeffrey Epstein or his associates.
People (13)
| Name | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Renzi | Prime Minister of Italy (implied) |
Subject of constitutional referendum; potential to be undermined by a 'No' vote.
|
| Norbert Hofer | Candidate |
Running on anti-immigrant platform in Austrian presidential election.
|
| Alexander Van der Bellen | Former Green leader |
Opponent to Norbert Hofer in Austrian presidential election.
|
| François Hollande | President of France |
Potential candidate for re-election.
|
| Manuel Valls | Former Prime Minister |
Potential challenger for French Socialist Party nomination.
|
| Arnaud Montebourg | Economy Minister |
Potential challenger for French Socialist Party nomination.
|
| Mark Rutte | Prime Minister of Netherlands |
Leads coalition; facing election challenge.
|
| Geert Wilders | Populist Leader |
Leader of Freedom Party; calling for Netherlands to leave EU.
|
| Marine Le Pen | Leader of Front National |
Expected to progress to runoff in French presidential election.
|
| Francois Fillon | Republican Candidate |
Expected to make it through to runoff in French presidential election.
|
| Jean-Marie Le Pen | Politician (Father of Marine Le Pen) |
Mentioned for historical context regarding 2002 election.
|
| Jacques Chirac | Former President |
Mentioned for historical context regarding 2002 election.
|
| Angela Merkel | Chancellor of Germany |
Intends to stand for re-election.
|
Organizations (16)
| Name | Type | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Source of the equity strategy report.
|
|
| House Oversight Committee |
Implied by Bates stamp 'HOUSE_OVERSIGHT'.
|
|
| ORF |
Provider of Austrian polling data.
|
|
| ECB |
European Central Bank; mentioned regarding QE (Quantitative Easing).
|
|
| Five Star |
Italian political group expected to be boosted by a 'No' vote.
|
|
| Freedom Party |
Austrian political party.
|
|
| Socialist Party |
French political party.
|
|
| Dutch Labour party |
Coalition partner in Netherlands.
|
|
| People’s Party |
Mark Rutte's party in Netherlands.
|
|
| Freedom party |
Dutch party led by Geert Wilders.
|
|
| Front National |
French party led by Marine Le Pen.
|
|
| CDU |
German party led by Angela Merkel.
|
|
| SDP |
German party (Likely SPD, referred to as SDP in text).
|
|
| Alternative für Deutschland |
German Euro-sceptic party.
|
|
| Greens |
German political party.
|
|
| Die Linke |
German political party.
|
Timeline (8 events)
2017-01-22
French Socialist Party presidential nominee elections (Round 1)
France
Relationships (3)
we note that when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, faced Jacques Chirac
polls have Rutte’s People’s Party neck and neck with the anti-immigrant Freedom party led by populist Geert Wilders
Norbert Hofer is standing... against the moderate former Green leader Alexander Van der Bellen
Key Quotes (5)
"Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case."Source
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Quote #1
"A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018 elections, in our view."Source
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Quote #2
"Wilders has called for the Netherlands to leave the EU indicated he would call a referendum if elected."Source
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Quote #3
"Nevertheless, we see a potential Le Pen win as the biggest political risk event for European (and possibly global) equity markets in 2017."Source
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Quote #4
"German elections carry less risk than the earlier French presidential elections."Source
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Quote #5
Full Extracted Text
Complete text extracted from the document (3,462 characters)
Eurozone political calendar 2017
4 December: Italian constitutional referendum
Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given
current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case. BTPs and the banks
recaps remain a tail risks for the Italian economy, although the ECB extending QE
should help. A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018
elections, in our view.
Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given
current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case. BTPs and the banks
recaps remain a tail risks for the Italian economy, although the ECB extending QE
should help. A big “No” vote would boost Five Star and undermine Renzi into 2018
elections, in our view.
4 December: Austrian presidential election
Polls by public broadcaster ORF show the result as very close. Norbert Hofer is
standing on an anti-immigrant platform against the moderate former Green leader
Alexander Van der Bellen in a rerun of the May vote. The election of Freedom party
candidate Norbert Hofer would make Austria the first nation to elect a head of state
running on a far right platform since the EU began.
Polls by public broadcaster ORF show the result as very close. Norbert Hofer is
standing on an anti-immigrant platform against the moderate former Green leader
Alexander Van der Bellen in a rerun of the May vote. The election of Freedom party
candidate Norbert Hofer would make Austria the first nation to elect a head of state
running on a far right platform since the EU began.
22/ 29 Jan: French Socialist Party presidential nominee elections
If President François Hollande decides to run for re-election as the Socialist Party
candidate (decision expected Dec 10th) he could be challenged by former Prime
Minister Manuel Valls and Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg. Current second
round polls for any combination of these candidates suggest likely Socialist nominee
too close to call.
If President François Hollande decides to run for re-election as the Socialist Party
candidate (decision expected Dec 10th) he could be challenged by former Prime
Minister Manuel Valls and Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg. Current second
round polls for any combination of these candidates suggest likely Socialist nominee
too close to call.
15 March 2017: Dutch elections
Prime Minister Mark Rutte currently leads a “purple” coalition with the Dutch Labour
party as main second party. But the latest polls suggest both parties could win fewer
seats than they have now in 2017. That could make it more challenging to build a
government given the need to secure at least 76/150 seats. In terms of who could
lead that coalition, polls have Rutte’s People’s Party neck and neck with the anti-
immigrant Freedom party led by populist Geert Wilders. Wilders has called for the
Netherlands to leave the EU indicated he would call a referendum if elected. A
Wilder-Rutte coalition also hasn’t been ruled out according to press reports.
Prime Minister Mark Rutte currently leads a “purple” coalition with the Dutch Labour
party as main second party. But the latest polls suggest both parties could win fewer
seats than they have now in 2017. That could make it more challenging to build a
government given the need to secure at least 76/150 seats. In terms of who could
lead that coalition, polls have Rutte’s People’s Party neck and neck with the anti-
immigrant Freedom party led by populist Geert Wilders. Wilders has called for the
Netherlands to leave the EU indicated he would call a referendum if elected. A
Wilder-Rutte coalition also hasn’t been ruled out according to press reports.
23 April: French first round presidential elections
The first round of voting for the next French president will be on 23 April. First
round polling suggests the leader of the anti-EU Front National Marine Le Pen is
expected to progress to the decisive runoff. At present Republican Candidate
Francois Fillon is also expected to make it through.
The first round of voting for the next French president will be on 23 April. First
round polling suggests the leader of the anti-EU Front National Marine Le Pen is
expected to progress to the decisive runoff. At present Republican Candidate
Francois Fillon is also expected to make it through.
7 May 2017: French second round presidential elections
Current polls, albeit their validity has been called into question by events in 2016,
show Fillon securing 65-70% of the vote vs Le Pen in a runoff (see chart below). We
note that when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, faced Jacques Chirac in the 2002
Presidential elections the FN candidate only received 18% of the vote. Nevertheless,
we see a potential Le Pen win as the biggest political risk event for European (and
possibly global) equity markets in 2017.
Current polls, albeit their validity has been called into question by events in 2016,
show Fillon securing 65-70% of the vote vs Le Pen in a runoff (see chart below). We
note that when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, faced Jacques Chirac in the 2002
Presidential elections the FN candidate only received 18% of the vote. Nevertheless,
we see a potential Le Pen win as the biggest political risk event for European (and
possibly global) equity markets in 2017.
By 22 October 2017: German Federal elections
Current Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that she intends to stand for re-
election. Current polls have Merkel’s CDU ahead followed by SDP with the euro-
sceptic Alternative für Deutschland, Greens and Die Linke competing for third spot.
While it may be necessary for Merkel to maintain the grand coalition with the SDP,
our central case is that we see a continuation of the current German administration
and that German elections carry less risk than the earlier French presidential
elections.
Current Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that she intends to stand for re-
election. Current polls have Merkel’s CDU ahead followed by SDP with the euro-
sceptic Alternative für Deutschland, Greens and Die Linke competing for third spot.
While it may be necessary for Merkel to maintain the grand coalition with the SDP,
our central case is that we see a continuation of the current German administration
and that German elections carry less risk than the earlier French presidential
elections.
Bank of America
Merrill Lynch
European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 15
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014474
Merrill Lynch
European Equity Strategy | 01 December 2016 15
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014474
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